You know, the confidence people have in their beliefs… it’s rarely about the hard evidence. It’s about how well they’ve stitched their story together. Kahneman nailed a huge blind spot in human psychology here.
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Meaning
Confidence doesn’t come from proof; it comes from a compelling narrative.
Explanation
Look, here’s the thing I’ve seen over and over. Our brains are story-making machines, not perfect logic processors. When a bunch of ideas, even if they’re flimsy, fit together neatly in our minds, that feeling of coherence is what we mistake for truth. It feels right. And that feeling, that smooth, seamless story, is what breeds unshakable confidence. It’s why two people can look at the exact same set of facts and walk away with completely different, utterly certain conclusions. The story they told themselves was just more internally consistent.
Quote Summary
| Context | Attributes |
|---|---|
| Original Language | English (3668) |
| Category | Wisdom (385) |
| Topics | belief (103), confidence (100), storytelling (19) |
| Literary Style | analytical (121) |
| Emotion / Mood | provocative (175) |
| Overall Quote Score | 83 (302) |
Origin & Factcheck
This gem comes straight from Daniel Kahneman’s 2011 magnum opus, “Thinking, Fast and Slow.” It’s a cornerstone of his work on cognitive biases. You sometimes see it misattributed to other behavioral economists, but this is pure Kahneman, born from decades of research, primarily in the US and Israel.
Attribution Summary
| Context | Attributes |
|---|---|
| Author | Daniel Kahneman (54) |
| Source Type | Book (4032) |
| Source/Book Name | Thinking, Fast and Slow (54) |
| Origin Timeperiod | 21st Century (1892) |
| Original Language | English (3668) |
| Authenticity | Verified (4032) |
Author Bio
Dr Daniel Kahneman transformed how we think about thinking. Trained in Israel and at UC Berkeley, he built a career spanning Hebrew University, UBC, UC Berkeley, and Princeton. His partnership with Amos Tversky produced prospect theory and the heuristics-and-biases program, culminating in the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. He engaged broad audiences through bestselling books and practical frameworks for better decisions. He continued writing and advising late into life, leaving ideas that shape economics, policy, medicine, and management. If you want to dive deeper, start with the Dr Daniel Kahneman book list and explore his enduring insights.
| Official Website
Where is this quotation located?
| Quotation | The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story they have managed to construct |
| Book Details | Publication Year: 2011; ISBN: 9780374275631; Latest Edition: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2013; Number of pages: 499. |
| Where is it? | Part III: Overconfidence, Chapter 20: The Illusion of Understanding, Approximate page 208 (2013 edition) |