You know, the confidence we have in our beliefs… it’s often just a story we’ve told ourselves so well that we mistake it for truth. It’s not really about the hard evidence at all. This is one of those insights that changes how you see every argument and decision.
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Meaning
The core message here is brutal but true: Our confidence is a feeling, not a fact-check. It’s generated by a compelling narrative, not by a pile of data.
Explanation
Let me break this down. Kahneman is pointing to a fundamental flaw in our mental wiring. Our brains are meaning-making machines, and they crave a good, coherent story. When all the pieces of our belief fit together neatly in a narrative—even if that narrative is built on shaky ground—we get this warm, confident feeling. It *feels* right. And that feeling is so powerful, it completely drowns out the little voice asking, “But where’s the actual proof?” We fall in love with the story of our belief, not its foundation.
Quote Summary
| Context | Attributes |
|---|---|
| Original Language | English (3668) |
| Category | Wisdom (385) |
| Topics | belief (103), confidence (100), story (19) |
| Literary Style | analytical (121) |
| Emotion / Mood | provocative (175) |
| Overall Quote Score | 84 (319) |
Origin & Factcheck
This gem comes straight from Daniel Kahneman’s 2011 masterpiece, “Thinking, Fast and Slow.” It was published in the United States and synthesizes decades of his Nobel-prize winning research. You sometimes see this idea paraphrased online and attributed to others, but the core concept is pure Kahneman.
Attribution Summary
| Context | Attributes |
|---|---|
| Author | Daniel Kahneman (54) |
| Source Type | Book (4032) |
| Source/Book Name | Thinking, Fast and Slow (54) |
| Origin Timeperiod | 21st Century (1892) |
| Original Language | English (3668) |
| Authenticity | Verified (4032) |
Author Bio
Dr Daniel Kahneman transformed how we think about thinking. Trained in Israel and at UC Berkeley, he built a career spanning Hebrew University, UBC, UC Berkeley, and Princeton. His partnership with Amos Tversky produced prospect theory and the heuristics-and-biases program, culminating in the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. He engaged broad audiences through bestselling books and practical frameworks for better decisions. He continued writing and advising late into life, leaving ideas that shape economics, policy, medicine, and management. If you want to dive deeper, start with the Dr Daniel Kahneman book list and explore his enduring insights.
| Official Website
Where is this quotation located?
| Quotation | The confidence we have in our beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story we tell ourselves |
| Book Details | Publication Year: 2011; ISBN: 9780374275631; Latest Edition: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2013; Number of pages: 499. |
| Where is it? | Part III: Overconfidence, Chapter 20: The Illusion of Understanding, Approximate page 208 (2013 edition) |